According to the Monetary Policy Report released by the Bank of Canada, the effective tariff rate imposed by the United States on Canadian goods has surged by roughly 5 percentage points this year. Prior to President Trump's inauguration, trade between Canada and the United States was virtually tariff-free, thanks to the USMCA agreement. The Bank of Canada anticipates that the compliance rate of Canadian exporters with the USMCA will reach 95%, with energy exporters achieving a perfect compliance rate of 100%. Should current tariff levels persist, the Canadian economy is projected to grow at an annualized rate of 1% in the second half of the year.
