In September 2026, domestic mobile phone brands are set to host a flurry of product launch events, marking a notably condensed timeline compared to the previous year. This trend is attributed to a more relaxed product rollout pace in the first half of the year, strategic adjustments in distribution channels, and escalating cost pressures stemming from price hikes in upstream memory chips. Storage costs now constitute a significantly larger share of total expenses, prompting leading brands like Huawei, Xiaomi, and Honor to hike prices on their previous-generation flagship models. The pricing for new flagship models is also anticipated to surge by RMB 1,000-2,000, prompting some manufacturers to scale back planned production volumes. To substantiate these price increases, each brand is flaunting its technological advancements: Apple is poised to unveil the A20 Pro chip, leveraging TSMC's cutting-edge 2nm process, alongside its inaugural large-foldable iPhone, with a starting price that could soar to RMB 15,000; Xiaomi's 18 Fold will make its debut with the self-developed Xuanjie O3 chip and LPDDR6 memory; Huawei's Mate 90 series will introduce a novel Kirin chip grounded in the "Tao (τ) Law," accompanied by the third-generation triple-foldable Mate XT2 and the expansive bar-style Pura X View; OPPO will showcase ColorOS 17 and the Find X10 series. Presently, AI has yet to emerge as a pivotal consideration for consumers when selecting mobile phones. This year, the foldable screen market is centering on large-foldable designs. Apple's foray into this segment is projected to capture 25% of the global market share in its inaugural year, eclipsing Huawei's 24%, albeit with vastly different user bases. Huawei's introduction of large-screen bar-style models is tailored to cater to users who favor a spacious screen over a foldable one. Mobile phone manufacturers are collectively grappling with shipment anxieties. Xiaomi has been particularly hard-hit by escalating storage costs in overseas emerging markets, witnessing declines in both shipment volumes and profits; Huawei has experienced a dip in its domestic foldable screen market share. Apple's new CEO is banking on a high-priced product lineup for their debut, but the constrained yield of the 2nm chip, the absence of AI features in the Chinese version, and the potential for foldable models to cannibalize its own Pro Max user base suggest that shipment volumes are likely to remain modest. Consumers are primarily upgrading their devices out of necessity, and the 618 shopping festival has already satiated some of this demand, potentially dampening their willingness to absorb the industry's cost-related concerns.
