A recent research report from China Merchants Securities highlights that the Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate within the target range of 4.25%-4.50% and has made no alterations to its balance sheet reduction plan. Chairman Powell of the Fed continues to express concern over the risk of stagflation, implying that a rate cut is unlikely unless inflation subsides significantly more than employment issues. Given factors such as goods in transit, the effects of new tariffs imposed from August 1 are anticipated to manifest in September's import data, potentially exacerbating inflation in October and November. The inflationary impact of these tariffs is likely to be protracted and gradual, potentially postponing the Fed's decision on interest rate cuts, suggesting that a rate cut in September may not materialize. Nevertheless, once the tariff-induced inflationary hurdles are surmounted, interest rate cuts could become a likely subsequent step. It appears that the market may already be bracing for the Fed's decision to hold rates steady in September, with current market pricing indicating a 45.2% probability of a rate cut in that month, and the risk-free rate no longer serving as a positive factor.