A recent research report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) highlights that the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept its interest rates unchanged during the September meeting, aligning with market expectations. Notably, while two governors dissented, Chairman Jerome Powell and the majority of policymakers believed that inflation risks stemming from tariffs remained a concern, coupled with a stable labor market, which led them to oppose a rate cut. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence, assuring that it would not be swayed by political pressures. It is anticipated that the inflationary impact of tariffs will intensify in the coming months, further diminishing the likelihood of a September rate cut. Should President Trump persist in imposing additional tariffs, the timing of any potential rate reduction could be significantly postponed. The market has seemingly underestimated the Fed's commitment to maintaining its autonomy and has overlooked Trump's calls for a rate reduction.
