CITIC Securities’ research report highlights that during China’s 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026–2030), next-gen communication networks will evolve toward seamless integration of “space, air, land, sea, and underwater” domains, positioning the commercial space sector as a pivotal driver of infrastructure investment.

Transportation: Recyclable rocket technologies, exemplified by the Long March 10B, are entering a phase of rigorous technological validation. This innovation is projected to slash launch costs by up to 60%, with 2028–2030 marking a critical window for low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellation deployment.

Manufacturing: Upstream supply chain development and production capacity expansion are expected to catalyze over ¥1.7 trillion ($235 billion) in industrial investment, fostering advancements in satellite mass production and modular components.

Applications: The sector is poised for S-curve growth dynamics. Post-constellation completion, focus will pivot to end-user services, with direct smartphone satellite connectivity emerging as a transformative use case. By 2030, this market alone could generate ¥120 billion ($16.5 billion) annually, according to industry estimates.

Strategic Outlook: Investors should track policy frameworks supporting transportation infrastructure and commercial demand incubation. Near-term catalysts include recyclable rocket reusability milestones and space-tech IPOs, while long-term value hinges on scalable commercialization of satellite-based services.

This dual-track approach—balancing technological maturity with market adoption—will define the sector’s trajectory in the coming decade.