The international financial institution Nomura recently issued a report, highlighting that while the extensive advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) has served as a substantial catalyst for economic growth in the United States, it has concurrently introduced a spectrum of economic pressures. Should AI development encounter obstacles, it could unveil the escalating risk premium prevalent in the U.S. economy. The report elucidates that the AI boom has precipitated an uptick in chip and electricity prices, thereby fueling inflationary trends. Furthermore, a significant surge in the importation of chips and technological apparatus has exacerbated the trade deficit. Moreover, prominent cloud computing entities have embarked on issuing substantial volumes of bonds, consequently elevating U.S. Treasury yields. Additionally, owing to net capital inflows and anomalous capital gains stemming from AI-propelled stock market appreciation, the net liability stance of the U.S. international investment position has witnessed a notable augmentation. According to calculations by Nomura analysts, the ratio of the U.S.'s net liability position within the international investment landscape to the aggregate net asset position of all net creditor nations in their respective international investment positions has soared to 80%. The report also underscores that, given the lofty valuations in the U.S. stock market coupled with deteriorating economic fundamentals, any stumble in AI development could instigate a substantial correction in U.S. capital markets, potentially metamorphosing into a 'global risk-off event'.
