In 2025, the memory market witnessed extreme price volatility. The prices of DDR4 memory modules surged by more than 100%, with a single 16GB module exceeding the 500 - yuan threshold. Some models even saw a price hike of over 160% within just four months.

This wave of price increases was propelled by several factors. Firstly, there's a soaring demand for AI servers. These servers consume 8 - 10 times more memory than traditional servers. However, the global monthly production capacity remains severely constrained. Secondly, industry giants like Samsung have redirected their capital expenditures towards high - end HBM memory. This move has squeezed the production capacity of DDR4, and Samsung is even planning to halt its production, which has further intensified the shortage. Thirdly, the supply chain has faced unexpected setbacks. For instance, a Micron factory encountered an accident, and SK Hynix's new plant construction was delayed. These issues, combined with expectations of tariffs, have triggered a wave of stockpiling. Moreover, speculative activities have added fuel to the fire. Distributors have doubled their orders, and channel distributors are hoarding inventory. As a result, the prices of DDR5 memory modules in the secondary market have soared.

The impact of this price surge has been felt across the board, especially in end - products. Mobile phones, for example, have seen price increases due to the rising cost of storage. Some manufacturers have even discontinued large - memory versions, limiting consumers' choices.

Institutions predict that the shortage will persist until mid - 2026. The DDR4 supply gap will be difficult to bridge in the short term, and prices could potentially rise by another 37% - 39% in 2026. However, there are also uncertainties. If the pace of AI implementation slows down, the global economy experiences fluctuations, or domestic manufacturers expand production too rapidly, it could lead to a contraction in demand and an oversupply situation, introducing unpredictability into the price trends.