On October 13, recent dialogues within the financial sphere have been abuzz with discussions about the outcomes of the China-EU trade negotiations concerning hybrid and electric vehicles. Whispers have circulated, suggesting that China's hybrid car exports to Europe are set to experience a "reduction by more than half" over the forthcoming four-year period, a notion that has captured considerable attention. Yet, this assertion is far from the truth.

Based on Tanzhu's insights, the negotiations between China and the EU are anchored in the benchmark of the EU importing 302,000 hybrid vehicles from China by 2025. The concept of a "reduction by more than half" emanates from the European side, stemming from their narrative-driven projections. The Europeans extrapolated the export volume for the next four years, basing their predictions on the growth trajectory of China's hybrid car exports to Europe in recent years, and juxtaposed it against the post-consultation arrangements, arriving at this conclusion. However, it is crucial to note that this projected data did not serve as the actual foundation for the bilateral consultations. Moreover, the projection itself is riddled with uncertainties.

Export conditions in previous years have been swayed by a myriad of short-term market factors. Therefore, it is overly simplistic and potentially misleading to linearly project these conditions onto the next four years, as it fails to account for the dynamic and ever-evolving nature of the global automotive market.