On July 4, UBS's latest industry research indicated that the upward trend in memory chip prices will further intensify in the second half of 2026. The forecast for DDR contract prices has been revised upward, with an expected 32% quarter-over-quarter increase in the third quarter (previously forecast at 17%) and an 18% rise in the fourth quarter (previously forecast at 12%), continuing to climb after a significant 67% surge in the second quarter. NAND prices have also been revised higher, with an anticipated 30% quarter-over-quarter increase in the third quarter and a 12% rise in the fourth quarter, extending the strong cycle. Analysis suggests that the tight supply-demand balance in the DRAM industry will persist at least through the first half of 2028. Chip demand is expected to grow by 36.2% in 2027, significantly outpacing supply growth of 19.3%, resulting in a supply-demand gap that will reach levels rarely seen in the past 30 years. Excluding downstream inventory restocking, the supply-demand gap is projected to widen from -8.1% in 2026 to -13.6% in 2027. Overall, the current upcycle for memory chips is expected to continue through 2027, with industry revenue projected to reach $992 billion in 2026 and rise to $1.76 trillion in 2027. However, the primary risk lies in the affordability for downstream customers, particularly large cloud providers, who may need to continue raising capital through financial markets to support their related investment expenditures.
