UBS Slashes CATL's Target Price to HK$730 Amid Unit Profit Pressures from Product Mix Shifts and Tax Rebate Adjustments
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Author:小编   

On October 21, UBS unveiled a research report indicating that CATL's net profit for the third quarter stood at RMB 21.2 billion, marking a 15% year-on-year surge but a 6% quarter-on-quarter decline, falling short of market expectations by roughly 10%. Throughout the reporting period, battery sales surpassed 260GWh, with energy storage systems contributing around 25% and electric vehicle batteries making up approximately 75%. UBS highlighted that, owing to factors such as quarterly variations in the product mix, a rise in low value-added projects, the implementation of a consumption tax on lithium-ion batteries effective September 1, and a reduction in the export value-added tax rebate rate, CATL's unit profit plummeted to RMB 82 per kilowatt-hour, hitting an all-time low. Despite these challenges, management remains upbeat about the industry's growth prospects, projecting a 20% to 30% expansion by 2027. Consequently, UBS has revised its net profit forecasts for CATL from 2026 to 2028 downward by 11% to 14%, to a range of RMB 90 billion to RMB 131 billion, and trimmed the target price from HK$820 to HK$730, while retaining a "Buy" recommendation.