Haitong International Adjusts NIO's Target Price Down to HK$32.7, Citing Narrow Profit Margins
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Author:小编   

On September 7, Haitong International issued a report indicating that NIO's (09866.HK) delivery volume for the third quarter is anticipated to fall within the range of 108,000 to 111,000 units. This projection signifies a year-on-year growth of 24.0% to 27.5%, while only a marginal quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.3% to 3.1%, effectively remaining stable compared to the second quarter. Regarding revenue, it is forecasted to hit the range of RMB 33.29 billion to RMB 34.05 billion, suggesting an approximate 2% to 3% increase in the average selling price on a quarter-on-quarter basis. The management expects the cost per vehicle to climb by an additional RMB 2,000 to RMB 3,000 in the latter half of the year compared to the second quarter. They plan to sustain automotive gross margins at approximately 18% in both the third and fourth quarters, with the anticipation of a positive full-year Non-GAAP operating profit. Nevertheless, considering the slim profit margins observed in the second quarter, the limited quarter-on-quarter sales growth in the third quarter, and the ongoing cost escalations, the prospects for sustained profitability in the second half of the year appear uncertain. While the demand for the ES8 and ES9 models remains relatively strong, the objective of surpassing 40,000 monthly sales in the fourth quarter still hinges on the revival of the Ledo brand and the acceleration of the Firefly brand's market penetration. As a result, Haitong International has reduced its annual delivery forecast by 7%, setting it at 424,000 units. It projects revenue to reach RMB 123.9 billion, RMB 155 billion, and RMB 155.2 billion for the years 2026 to 2028, respectively, reflecting downward revisions of 2% and upward revisions of 13% for the corresponding years. Concurrently, it has revised NIO's target price downward from HK$46.22 to HK$32.7, while maintaining a Neutral rating.