On October 11, a research report from CITIC Securities noted that during the extended domestic holiday period, U.S. stock performance showed reduced sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations. Investors are expected to shift their focus to the third-quarter earnings reports of U.S. stocks starting next week. According to consensus expectations from LSEG, the S&P 500 is projected to see year-over-year revenue and earnings growth rates of 1.2% and 45.0%, respectively, for the third quarter of 2026. These growth rates represent a slight moderation from the previous quarter. In terms of sectoral performance, the year-over-year earnings growth rates for energy, information technology, raw materials, and healthcare sectors all surpass 50%. This indicates that the high earnings growth in U.S. stocks is no longer confined to leading tech companies, with non-tech sectors making a significantly larger contribution to earnings.

Turning to Hong Kong stocks, despite the liquidity pressures stemming from the overseas interest rate hike cycle and the resurgence of AI-driven momentum trading, fundamental expectations have hit rock bottom. Earnings growth expectations for major broad-based indices have started to be revised upwards. There is a notable divergence in the adjustments to sectoral earnings expectations, with some niche segments seeing upward revisions, while earnings expectations for sectors related to domestic demand continue to face downward pressure. The third-quarter earnings reports will be crucial in determining the pace of recovery. CITIC Securities advises investors to maintain patience with Hong Kong stocks, anticipating that short-term dividend strategies will continue to outperform relatively.