The research report by CICC states that since June, the adjustment in the semiconductor sector has led the global market to enter a consolidation phase after a period of rapid gains. While the major cycle has not yet concluded, the contradiction between the financing frenzy and tight liquidity has intensified, compounded by high market crowding and leverage. It is expected that the market will undergo a temporary consolidation until liquidity improves. Tactically, the report anticipates that the global market adjustment may persist in the third quarter, with risks primarily stemming from monetary policy uncertainty, rising financing pressures, and spillover risks from the Japanese and Korean markets. Strategically, the report reaffirms that the technology sector rally is expected to resume after the consolidation, and it remains bullish on broad-based safe-haven assets. It is important to note that the post-consolidation rally may spread to the upper branch of the K-shaped recovery driven by safety and investment. In addition to AI hardware, sectors such as AI applications, industrials, and commodities may embrace new opportunities in the second half.
