Morgan Stanley Starts Credit Rating Coverage on Nvidia: Financial Prowess Converted into AI Financing Instrument, with Debt Potentially Hitting $200 Billion
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Nvidia is tapping into its financial statements to propel a financing strategy for AI infrastructure. However, this tactic also brings in new categories of risks, rendering traditional leverage indicators inadequate for a thorough evaluation of its creditworthiness. Morgan Stanley has commenced credit rating coverage on Nvidia as of August 24, 2026, assigning a neutral rating and suggesting that investors should take a cautious, wait-and-see stance for now. The bank forecasts that by the end of 2028, Nvidia's total credit exposure could soar to roughly $200 billion, with about $170 billion arising from off-balance-sheet adjustments and contingent liabilities. These contingent liabilities are classified into three categories: minimum rating adjustments, RVS exposure, and exposure from revenue-sharing and credit support. It's worth noting that S&P and Moody's have different approaches when it comes to treating Nvidia's contingent liabilities as debt. Despite the fact that Nvidia's current credit spread levels are not particularly high, Morgan Stanley still advises investors to maintain a wait-and-see attitude due to the uncertainties and issues related to information transparency surrounding its cooperation and support frameworks. The bank also points out that intervention would become a more appealing option if credit default swaps (CDS) surpass 100 basis points and cash bonds reach levels similar to those of AT&T. In the meantime, Morgan Stanley holds the view that there isn't enough evidence to justify shorting Nvidia's credit.

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