On April 27, 2026 (local time), the legal clash between Elon Musk and OpenAI commenced in the Oakland Federal Court, embarking on the jury selection phase. The trial is anticipated to span approximately four weeks. Legal experts, along with prediction markets, generally hold the view that Musk has a slim chance of emerging victorious. Since March, his average winning probability on the Kalshi platform has hovered around 40%, a significant decline from the 57% he confidently touted in January.

Musk has leveled accusations against OpenAI, alleging that it has strayed from its initial non-profit mission and transformed into a 'profit-hungry entity.' He has put forth five demands: compelling OpenAI to uphold its original charter, ousting Altman and Brockman from their respective positions, returning equity and financial gains, reclaiming illegal profits, and nullifying the public benefit corporation restructuring plan.

In response, OpenAI has argued that Musk's actions are aimed at 'harassing the defendants and disrupting the trial process.' This case holds far-reaching implications for the nearly $8 trillion AI industry chain. Should Musk prevail, OpenAI's organizational structure, financing strategies, and even its plans for going public may be compelled to undergo a major overhaul. Moreover, tech behemoths like Microsoft and the entire AI industry chain could be confronted with a ripple effect of consequences.