A recent research report from CICC highlights a notable surge in market anticipation for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Internal disagreements within the Fed are evident, with some favoring rate cuts and others advocating a wait-and-see strategy. Additionally, external pressures from figures such as US President Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin are urging the Fed to implement substantial rate reductions. Nonetheless, we contend that the United States' paramount risk currently lies in 'stagflation-like' conditions, and current economic realities do not justify drastic rate cuts. Monetary policy ought to prioritize stabilizing inflation expectations over pursuing short-term economic growth or yielding to political pressures. Consequently, we predict that the Federal Reserve will adopt a cautious stance in its rate cut decisions and refrain from substantial easing measures. Amidst a scenario of slowing employment and persistent inflation, uncertainties surrounding monetary policy are poised to escalate markedly.