Amid escalating trade tensions, US rare earth firm MP Materials has opted to halt exports of rare earth concentrates to China, aiming to establish a domestic rare earth industry chain. Nevertheless, technological hurdles and high refining costs imply that the US will continue to rely on China for rare earth smelting and separation in the near term. With approximately 90% of global smelting and separation capacity, as well as magnetic material capacity, China wields considerable influence over the global rare earth supply chain. Projections indicate that by 2025, US exports of rare earth concentrates to China will cease entirely, while supplies from Southeast Asia may also tighten. In response, China has tightened its export controls on rare earths. Additionally, the surging demand for rare earths in emerging sectors, such as humanoid robots, has further elevated the strategic importance of these resources.