Huatai Securities' research report posits that the crux of the prevailing trend in the technology market hinges on whether a trading floor has been firmly established, and it appears that the market is presently nearing the 'nascent formation of a trading floor.' This assessment is grounded in three key factors: Firstly, the extent of the market correction has been notably substantial, with the primary trend retreating into an oversold territory. Secondly, both domestic and international leveraged trading funds have experienced a degree of unwinding, with leveraged funds having completely divested all incremental positions amassed since the second quarter. Furthermore, hedge funds in the U.S. equity market and leveraged funds in the South Korean equity market have also scaled back from their extreme positions. Thirdly, despite persistent selling pressure in the market of late, there has been a notable absence of significant incremental buying. The pivotal juncture for a potential trend reversal is anticipated to occur in late August. During this period, interim reports, NVIDIA's earnings announcement, and redemption pressures amidst the market rebound will collectively ascertain whether the technology market can embark on a fresh primary uptrend. In terms of asset allocation, dividend-paying stocks should persist as the cornerstone, while the initial technology market rebound is expected to concentrate on sectors within the original main trend that exhibit high earnings certainty, such as semiconductor equipment. For sectors lying outside the main trend, vigilance should be directed towards areas demonstrating improvement in interim reports, including securities firms and innovative pharmaceuticals.
