On July 8th, reports surfaced indicating that industry analysts foresee a substantial surge in TSMC's production capabilities for Photonic Integrated Circuits (PIC). Presently, TSMC's monthly PIC production volume stands at around 500 wafers. However, projections suggest a leap to 10,000 wafers per month by the second quarter of 2026, escalating further to 15,000 wafers monthly by the year's fourth quarter, and ultimately hitting a minimum of 25,000 wafers per month by 2028.
Based on estimates, assuming each wafer accommodates 648 dies, TSMC's annual PIC production will experience a dramatic increase, jumping from roughly 4 million units to 78 million units as the monthly production capacity climbs from 500 wafers to 10,000 wafers. Should the production capacity peak at 25,000 wafers per month, the annual PIC output is anticipated to soar to an impressive 194 million units.