In a research note dated November 13, CITIC Securities observed that Jensen Huang's departure, coupled with shifts in the U.S. political landscape, could prompt a reassessment of valuations across the AI supply chain and trigger a rotation in U.S. equity market style. Nevertheless, the medium-term trajectory of U.S. stocks still hinges on corporate earnings fundamentals. At the sector level, the market may in the near term price in slower AI capital expenditure and downward revisions to semiconductor earnings expectations, though supply chain inventory risk remains limited and the scope for adjustment in the hardware segment appears manageable. Slower growth in AI capital expenditure should help improve cloud service providers' free cash flow, and combined with a potential decline in long-term interest rates, the SaaS sector stands to benefit. The U.S. midterm elections and leadership changes at leading technology companies may amplify short-term volatility, but systemic selling pressure is expected to remain contained. Once political risks are absorbed, the pricing logic for U.S. equities is likely to shift from risk-sentiment dominance back to earnings fundamentals, with earnings growth and upward estimate revisions expected to underpin medium-term performance.
