In the spring of 2026, China's telecom giants—China Telecom, China Mobile, and China Unicom—are poised to collectively enter a pivotal phase in the evolution of their Token-based businesses. China Telecom is set to roll out a trial commercial Token package, Shanghai Mobile will provide widespread Token services, China Mobile will unveil its Token operational ecosystem, and China Unicom will enhance its Token program. Historically, these three major operators have grappled with decelerating revenue and net profit growth, as traditional revenue streams have hit a plateau and the transition to cloud computing has proven challenging. The business models underpinning Token operations and data traffic management share many similarities, and the operators boast substantial advantages in terms of infrastructure. Consequently, Token technology is anticipated to serve as a new catalyst for their sustained growth.
At present, the Token market is brimming with demand, yet operators encounter hurdles in model development, product innovation, and organizational nimbleness. Nevertheless, armed with their robust infrastructure and operational frameworks, operators have the potential to assume a role akin to the 'State Grid' in the AI era, showcasing tremendous promise in both government-enterprise markets and AI terminal applications.
However, uncertainties linger regarding whether the Token business can achieve high gross margins, as investments in computing power might once again ensnare operators in a cycle of 'heavy capital expenditures.' Should the returns on these computing power investments fall short of projections, or if a price war erupts in the Token market, leading to squeezed gross margins, it would pose a significant challenge to the operators' operational model of 'capital discipline + high dividends.'
Therefore, operators must strike a delicate balance between ramping up AI investments and maintaining capital discipline, ensuring that the Tokens they offer can adequately cover costs. This equilibrium will be crucial in determining the future trajectory of their Token operational ecosystem alliance.
