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Analysis from GF Securities' research report reveals that China's heavy truck industry, notably cyclical in nature, is currently at the bottom of its cycle. Looking ahead, projections indicate a resurgence in logistics vehicle sales, anticipated to reach 797,000 units in 2024, marking a substantial 47.9% increase. Engineering vehicle sales are also expected to surge, climbing to 235,000 units, representing a remarkable growth rate of 268.4%. Furthermore, the impact of the 2025 truck scrapping and replacement subsidy policy is forecasted to be 3.5 to 8 times greater than that of the previous year, potentially catalyzing an additional 70,000 to 240,000 heavy truck sales, with sales elasticity spanning from 12% to 40%. Should the policy's implementation period be extended by 2.4 times, the effectiveness of this round of measures could surpass initial expectations.
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