The forecasting team at CPCA manufacturers predicts that, by 2027, the domestic auto market will likely bottom out and begin to recover, barring any unforeseen policy or environmental changes. This optimism is based on the gradual resolution of short-term challenges, a reduction in cost pressures, and an improvement in product competitiveness within the supply chain. The team anticipates a domestic retail growth range of 0% to 5%, averaging 2%, with market differentiation becoming even more pronounced. The sharp downturn in the auto market in 2026 can be attributed to a confluence of short-term factors, including policy overreach, oil price volatility, the spillover effects of AI-related costs, and weak consumer demand. Nevertheless, the long-term upward trajectory remains intact, and the projected retail volume of 18.5 million units already represents a conservative estimate. In 2027, the tail-end effects of the vehicle purchase tax, the timing of the Chinese New Year, an anticipated oil price decline (Note: While "callback" was used in the original translation, "decline" or "drop" may be more natural in this financial context), and a drop in lithium carbonate prices will jointly drive a recovery in both demand and cost structures. Additionally, reduced efforts to reduce inventory and the restoration of the new vehicle supply cycle will provide further support from the supply side, clarifying the direction of the market's recovery.
