In October 2026, Kalshi's prediction market showed that the probability of Tesla and SpaceX completing a merger by March 2027 surged from 29% to 56%, with similar increases in the likelihood of integration being completed by April and May. Recently, Barclays released a research report outlining potential merger scenarios between the two companies, further fueling market expectations for a merger. Both Tesla and SpaceX are led by Musk, with a history of multiple business collaborations, and Musk has previously stated that the overlap between the two companies' businesses will continue to grow. Barclays predicts that the merger announcement may come before Tesla's 2026 annual shareholder meeting, potentially proposed in the form of AI vertical integration, with related semiconductor projects likely playing a key role. Additionally, this week Tesla unveiled a new generation of its Roadster sports car featuring levitating capabilities enabled by SpaceX technology, while Musk attended a state dinner held at the White House East Room. Recently, some institutions have also raised their target price for SpaceX.