IDC Predicts: Global Smartphone Shipments to Drop 12.9% Year-on-Year in 2026, PC Shipments to Decline by 11.3%
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In 2026, the market conditions for smartphones and PCs are set to far surpass previous pessimistic forecasts, primarily due to the supply shortage and price hikes of DRAM and NAND flash memory. The smartphone market is expected to witness a more pronounced downturn, with annual shipments plummeting by 12.9% year-on-year. Meanwhile, the PC market is projected to see an 11.3% year-on-year decrease. A significant rebound in both sectors is not anticipated until 2028. In light of the anticipated surge in memory chip prices by the end of 2025, manufacturers are proactively stockpiling, leading to a spike in shipments during the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026. Nevertheless, this short-term boost will not mitigate the long-term repercussions. In 2026, despite the decline in PC shipments, revenue is expected to register positive growth, attributed to the rising average selling prices (ASPs). Conversely, the smartphone market will commence its downward trajectory from the first quarter of 2026, with the magnitude of decline anticipated to expand thereafter, and revenue is projected to experience a marginal decrease. Furthermore, the explosive growth in AI computing power is reshaping the allocation of semiconductor production capacity, potentially fostering increased industry consolidation. Simultaneously, the sluggish demand for product price increases serves as a cautionary signal for the industry.