Industry analyses suggest that South Korean memory giants, SK Hynix and Samsung, are set to dominate the next-generation high-bandwidth memory (HBM) market. Due to a strategic misstep in choosing its technological path, Micron will see its share of HBM4 supply for NVIDIA's Rubin platform fall to zero. SK Hynix is anticipated to secure roughly 70% of the orders, with Samsung claiming the remaining 30%.

The primary reason behind Micron's setback lies in the risks inherent to its technological approach. Its 'go-it-alone' strategy has resulted in heat dissipation problems, and its pin speed has failed to meet customer expectations. Furthermore, Micron has been reluctant to adopt more advanced external process nodes. Timing has also played a crucial role; NVIDIA's chips have already progressed to the 'full-speed production' phase, and the supply chain list is nearly finalized. Micron intends to resubmit for qualification testing in the second quarter of 2026, but it has already missed the prime window of opportunity.

On the other hand, Samsung has been the first to satisfy NVIDIA's HBM4 pin speed requirements and is projected to capture a 20% to 30% market share.