ASML reported record third-quarter 2026 sales of €11.662 billion, up 25% sequentially and 55% year over year, as semiconductor manufacturers expanded investment in AI-related production. Gross margin reached 57.5%, while net income totaled €4.960 billion and basic earnings per share were €12.95. Management cautioned that its currently planned equipment output will not fully meet customer demand in either 2027 or 2028.

The capacity warning covers Low NA extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and deep ultraviolet (DUV) immersion lithography systems. ASML previously planned approximately 30% capacity growth for both categories in 2027 and was investigating another 30% increase in 2028. It is now examining expansion beyond that 2028 target. Customers are also expressing interest in orders for 2029 and 2030, although that interest should be distinguished from confirmed bookings.

ASML expects fourth-quarter sales of €14.2 billion–€15.2 billion and approximately 57% gross margin, bringing its full-year revenue outlook to €44 billion–€45 billion. Quarterly Installed Base Management revenue reached €3.289 billion as demand for productivity upgrades increased. Reported net income also included approximately €500 million from an increase in the valuation of ASML’s initial Mistral AI investment.

“Our supply as currently planned for both 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet the demand of our customers,” said Christophe Fouquet, ASML President and CEO.

Analysis

ASML’s results add an equipment-supply constraint to the semiconductor expansion story: new fab buildings require sufficient lithography capacity to support their intended output. Its warning is especially relevant because advanced logic and memory processes require increasing numbers of critical lithography exposures. Consequently, growth in equipment demand reflects both additional wafer capacity and greater patterning requirements per wafer. This is an editorial interpretation of ASML’s capacity outlook and technology disclosures.

There are three near-term ways to increase available wafer-processing capacity: manufacture more scanners, upgrade installed equipment, and introduce higher-throughput models. ASML plans initial deliveries of the NXE:3800F in early 2027, specifying 260 wafers per hour versus 230 for the NXE:3800E. Those specifications describe scanner throughput; they do not translate directly into an equivalent increase in finished-chip output across an entire fab.

ASML’s new BIC North campus in Eindhoven supports longer-term expansion, with its first phase scheduled for completion in 2029. That timing places it beyond the immediate 2027–28 supply window. The campus will incorporate a new manufacturing model intended to improve module production and installation flow. For AI infrastructure planning, the implication is that equipment availability and productivity improvements deserve attention alongside announced foundry capital spending.

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