On October 28, it was reported that the US goods trade deficit took an unexpected turn, widening in September due to a surge in imports. This deficit soared to its highest point since March 2025. To be specific, last month, the US goods trade deficit saw an expansion of 2.1%, equating to an increase of $2.8 billion, bringing the total deficit to a staggering $134.9 billion. This figure outstripped economists' previous projections, which had estimated the deficit at $130.2 billion.

The root cause of this widening trend can be traced back to the heightened imports of capital goods, a phenomenon propelled by the ongoing AI investment craze. Consequently, trade has failed to play a positive role in GDP growth for three successive quarters. Data reveals that goods imports jumped by $8.1 billion last month, reaching $344.1 billion, while goods exports also witnessed an uptick, rising by $5.3 billion to $209.2 billion.

The government is poised to unveil its preliminary estimate of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. Economists are predicting an annual GDP growth rate of 3.2%, with AI investment and consumer spending identified as the key engines driving this growth. For context, the second-quarter economic growth rate was recorded at 2.2%.