On October 13th, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a stark warning: compared to the situation a year ago, a greater number of banks across the globe would find themselves teetering on the brink under an extreme 'doomsday scenario.' The IMF highlighted that, despite substantial growth in bank profits, the challenges associated with AI (Artificial Intelligence) could still cast a long shadow over the banking sector.

In its latest stress test, the IMF assessed banks' resilience in the face of potential crises, including an AI market collapse, a sharp spike in government bond yields, and an economic downturn. The test results were alarming: under this dire scenario, a staggering 22% of global banking assets would be concentrated in the hands of 110 'weak' banks. These banks are characterized by core capital adequacy ratios falling below 7% or failing to meet even higher regulatory standards. In stark contrast, last year's test revealed that only 18% of global banking assets were held by 88 such vulnerable banks.

Athanasios Vamvakidis, a representative from the IMF, explained that the test scenarios crafted each year are tailored to mirror the prevailing risks of the time and are constructed using a consistent methodology. He pointed out that this year, global economic risks have surged, driven by a confluence of factors including disruptions in energy supplies, mounting concerns over an AI bubble, and escalating bond yields.