The "honeymoon phase" for the AI large-scale model sector appears to be over, as Hong Kong-listed AI firm MiniMax confronts its inaugural lock-up expiration post-IPO. Consequently, its stock price plummeted over 20% during intraday trading, causing its overall market capitalization to slip beneath the HK$100 billion mark. When compared to its all-time high, the company's market value has diminished by roughly HK$320 billion. In stark contrast, Zhipu, another prominent player in the AI large-scale model industry, witnessed its stock price rocket by more than 13% on the first day its lock-up period ended. Market analysts attribute this divergence mainly to variations in shareholder composition and the volume of shares released between the two entities. Nearly 63% of MiniMax's Hong Kong-listed shares became tradable, with a substantial portion held by financial investors who are now under considerable selling pressure. Conversely, Zhipu had a lesser volume of shares unlocked, predominantly owned by long-term cornerstone investors with state-owned affiliations.
Moreover, MiniMax's underperformance relative to Zhipu, which has a market value gap of over HK$700 billion, can also be traced to mixed market reactions to its M3 model, contentious pricing tactics, ambiguous commercialization outlook, and its present phase of heavy investment. Nonetheless, certain institutions maintain a positive outlook on MiniMax's future commercialization prospects. They anticipate that as industry pricing stabilizes, the company's management is optimistic about hitting an annual recurring revenue goal of $1 billion by the close of 2026. MiniMax's initial lock-up expiration can be viewed as a brief litmus test, and its valuation rebound will hinge on the speed of subsequent model advancements and commercial achievements.