On March 10, UBS revised its projections for Tesla's first-quarter deliveries in 2025, trimming the estimate from an initial 437,000 units down to 367,000 units. Despite the apparent slowdown in growth, UBS anticipates a potential uptick towards the quarter's end, fueled by promotional initiatives. The updated forecast implies a 5% year-over-year decline and a 26% quarter-over-quarter drop in deliveries, falling 13% short of Visible Alpha's expectations. Notably, the delivery lead times for the Model 3 and Model Y have shrunk to two weeks in key markets, hinting at softer demand. Consequently, UBS has adjusted its target share price for Tesla, lowering it from $259 to $225.
