According to the research report from CITIC Securities, the automotive industry is set to encounter unexpected surges in the prices of raw materials such as storage components, power batteries, and upstream resources in early 2026. These price hikes are anticipated to exert pressure on profit margins during the first quarter. The rise in storage costs is primarily driven by demand pressures stemming from the AI super cycle, a trend that could persist throughout the year. While the impact on the cost of intelligent vehicles is significant, it remains relatively constrained, with expectations of a less than 1% increase.
As for power batteries, the escalation in lithium carbonate prices is projected to elevate the average cost per vehicle by approximately 3,000 yuan annually. However, this impact is not rigid, owing to the buffering effect in price transmission and automakers' ability to adjust battery capacities. Furthermore, the price increases in copper and aluminum, influenced by fluctuations in upstream resource prices, are expected to raise the average cost per vehicle by around 2,000 yuan, with the duration of this impact remaining uncertain. Notably, hedging strategies can partially mitigate the effects of these price hikes. Therefore, it is advisable to focus on vehicle enterprises that demonstrate strong cost-transfer capabilities, possess an excellent product mix, and maintain a leading position in global markets.
