On November 27, China Merchants Securities International issued a report, highlighting that Pony.ai (PONY.O) outperformed revenue projections in the third quarter, thanks to the swift expansion of its Robotaxi business. During this period, the Guangzhou G7 model attained UE (Unit Economics) break-even, effectively proving the economic feasibility of the single-vehicle model. Consequently, Pony.ai's Robotaxi business model has been substantiated and is set to promptly embark on a scalable replication stage. Over the preceding two months, Pony.ai's stock price has undergone a notable correction from its peak levels. According to the analysis by China Merchants Securities International, this downturn is mainly attributable to the lofty valuations following a series of positive developments in September, with the market still adopting a cautious stance regarding the timing of its profitability transition. The bank emphasized that this correction is more indicative of an adjustment in market expectations rather than a deterioration in the company's fundamental prospects. Influenced by the dual effects of accelerated revenue growth from the Robotaxi business and comparatively elevated expense ratios, the bank has revised its loss estimates for Pony.ai upwards, projecting losses of 15.4%, 16.5%, and 21% for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively. Presently, the bank retains its target price of USD 24 for Pony.ai's U.S.-listed shares, along with an 'Overweight' recommendation.
