Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), offered insights into the automotive industry’s trajectory during China’s 15th Five-Year Plan period, forecasting that annual auto production will reach 40 million units. During the preceding 14th Five-Year Plan period, the industry maintained an average annual growth rate of 3%, with exports expanding by 9% annually and domestic demand growing nearly 2% year-on-year. Cui emphasized that while skepticism exists regarding China’s potential to achieve 40 million in global auto sales, both domestic and international markets harbor immense untapped demand. He identified three key drivers propelling production beyond the 40-million-unit threshold:

1. Market Expansion in Emerging Regions: Rising vehicle adoption in central and western China, as well as in smaller counties and rural areas, will fuel sustained growth.

2. Electrification Accelerating Vehicle Replacement Cycles: The shift toward electric vehicles (EVs) is shortening ownership lifespans, driving a surge in demand for new energy vehicles (NEVs).

3. Global Market Penetration: Gradual increases in China’s automotive export market share will contribute significantly to overall production volumes.