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With the war in the Persian Gulf now more than a month old, the effect on fuel prices is plain to see: On average, they’re up almost a dollar per gallon, or 25 percent, according to AAA. For a nation as addicted to the automotive as we are, that’s bad news. Except, of course, for electric vehicles.

The last half year has been rough for EV adoption here in the US. At the end of last September, the Trump administration abolished the federal tax credit for both new and used EVs, one of a series of policies that has disincentivized automakers to build EVs and consumers to buy them. Battery factories have been cancelled or repurposed, and EV lineups have been slashed as OEMs write down billions of dollars in the process.

Some analysts have predicted a particularly grim Q1 2026. Cox Automotive, for example, forecast a 6.5 percent overall decrease in new car sales for the first three months of the year but a 28 percent decrease in EV sales for the same period. Without sustained high fuel prices, Stephanie Valdez Streaty, Cox’s director of industry insights, expects people to make fewer trips. “To materially change buying behavior and drive a trend toward smaller, more efficient vehicles, consumers would need to believe gas prices will remain elevated for years, not just months,” Cox said.

Others have a slightly more optimistic take, particularly given that gas prices have nudged past the $4/gallon psychological barrier. “Our data shows that whenever this happens, 30 percent of vehicle owners begin to explore changing their vehicle type, whereas, 22 percent begin to look at different vehicle segments,” said Robby DeGraff, manager of product and consumer insights at AutoPacific.

“The last time we tracked… a big jump in gas prices… we noticed that it would take prices to rise by at least $1.86 to $2 per gallon more than right now, in order for them to switch powertrain types. While the percentage of consumers likely to switch out of their vehicle segment is lower… the price climb at the pump to kickstart that change is a bit lower, rising only $1.25 per gallon from where they’re at now,” DeGraff told Ars.

Winners and losers

As we saw yesterday, Tesla could have had a worse Q1; it increased deliveries globally but underperformed expectations and ended the quarter with even more inventory than it started with. Tesla doesn’t break out its figures, but it’s likely that Europe and China were mostly responsible for the sales increase; Cox estimates that in the US, Tesla saw sales decline by about 5 percent compared to Q1 2025.

What about some of the other automakers that have reported on the first quarter?

BMW doesn’t separate its plug-in hybrids from battery EV sales, but together, the company says it experienced a 50 percent decline in sales for Q1, selling just 9,856 electrified vehicles in Q1 2026 compared to 19,761 in Q1 2025.

At Ford, which bet heavily on getting F-150 pickup truck customers to go fully electric, Q1 EV sales fell by 69.6 percent to just 6,860 vehicles in total. Of these, 200 were the E-Transit, another 2,060 were F-150 Lightnings, both of which have now been canceled. The remaining 4,600 were Mustang Mach-Es, the only Ford EV for sale in the US until the arrival of a new midsize electric pickup due next year with a supposed $30,000 starting price.

That means it was easily outsold by Rivian. The startup found owners for 10,365 R1S SUVs and R1T pickup trucks between January and the end of March, a 20 percent increase year on year. Between the recent successful software-derived vehicle milestone in its joint venture with Volkswagen Group and the market debut of the smaller, cheaper R2 SUV in the next few months, 2026 is looking good for Rivian.

Hyundai’s Q1 sales figures show us that, like the larger car market, EV buyers just aren’t that keen on sedans. The curvaceous Ioniq 6 saw a 75 percent sales drop compared to the same time last year to just 829 units, but the Ioniq 5—which is now built locally near Savannah, Georgia—saw an increase of 14 percent to 9,790 units. The Ioniq 9 is also built at the Metaplant in Georgia and wasn’t on sale in Q1 2025 to compare to, but Hyundai has sold 1,990 of the electric three-rows so far this year.

Toyota emerges as another winner in EV sales: Its bZ crossover recorded a 78 percent increase year on year, with 10,029 sold. We can add 13 electric C-HRs to that tally as well, and Lexus saw even more impressive percentages as RZ sales grew by 207 percent year on year to 4,456 units. Impressive work for an automaker that spent plenty of time and money pushing back against EV policies. Toyota’s data also shows that the trend identified by Cox for the past quarter may look quite different in Q2. Although overall sales were down 8.5 percent in March, sales of EVs and hybrids increased by 2.5 percent.

General Motors still sells more EVs in the US than anyone other than Tesla, ending Q1 with 24,698 sales across Cadillac, Chevrolet, and GMC. But only two models saw sales growth: the diminutive Cadillac Optiq, which sold 2,847 (a 66 percent increase), and the Vistiq, which slots between the Lyriq and Escalade and found 1,902 buyers (compared to a single buyer in Q1 2025). Although GM has idled the factory that makes its full-size EV pickups and SUVs, it was actually the midsize Blazer EV that saw the worst time this past quarter: Its sales declined by 83 percent to just 1,077.

Want a bargain? Buy nearly new

The higher average purchase price of a new EV probably isn’t helping much here. The good news is that used EVs are still a real bargain as mainstream car buyers give them the cold shoulder.

The same Cox report from last week that estimated a 28 percent drop in new EV sales also estimated that 93,500 used EVs were sold in Q1 2026, an increase of 12 percent compared to 2025. Because of consumer fears about battery longevity and charging times, used EVs are typically a year newer and have 30,000 fewer miles than an equivalent gasoline-powered model, and over the last few weeks, Ars has presented some options if you’re looking to spend $5,000, $10,000, $15,000, or $20,000 on a used EV.

The really good news is that the supply of used EVs will only improve. A consequence of the Biden administration’s clean energy incentives was an increase in the percentage of EVs that were leased rather than bought outright, thanks to a loophole that meant any leased EV was still eligible for the IRS clean vehicle tax credit, even if they weren’t assembled in North America. Over the next two years, more and more of these EVs will end their leases and find themselves on dealer forecourts looking for their next home.