As the release of the iPhone 18 Pro series draws near, supply chain data casts a shadow over Apple's profitability forecast. According to the latest report from market research firm TrendForce, due to the global surge in DRAM memory prices, the bill of materials (BOM) cost structure for the iPhone 18 Pro is undergoing substantial shifts.
Take the 256GB model as an illustration. Its BOM cost is 38% higher compared to the same model launched last year. With storage prices on an upward trajectory, this cost gap is anticipated to widen even further in the first half of next year.
Storage chips stand out as the main contributor to the rapid escalation of iPhone manufacturing costs. In the third quarter of last year, storage accounted for 10% of the overall BOM cost. By the third quarter of this year, this share had climbed to 34%, and it could potentially reach 42% in the first half of next year.
To maintain stable shipment volumes, Apple might choose to limit the extent of price increases for the iPhone 18 Pro series, even if it means sacrificing some gross margins. Moreover, the company could seize the opportunity of the new model launch to hike the prices of existing older models.
Additionally, this September will see the release of only two upgraded models—the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max—along with Apple's inaugural foldable screen device. The base model iPhone 18 and the second-generation iPhone Air will have to bide their time until the spring 2027 update.