According to a research report by Guosheng Securities, there is limited scope for further adjustments in the bond market, prompting the recommendation to closely monitor allocation opportunities. As stock market valuations climb, the balance between the cost-effectiveness of stocks and bonds is gradually shifting. Additionally, the bond market's dynamics are not solely influenced by the stock market but are also intricately linked to the broader fixed-income market, encompassing loans and non-standard products.

Amid declining real returns, the downward trajectory of broad-spectrum interest rates, such as loan interest rates, remains steadfast. The initial surge in interest rates observed earlier in the year has been gradually absorbed over time, evidenced by the yield curve's shape and the year-on-year decline in interest rates. Consequently, Guosheng Securities assesses that the current potential for interest rate adjustments is limited, with the upper bounds for 10-year and 30-year treasuries estimated to be approximately 1.75-1.8% and 2.05-2.1%, respectively.

In the near term, the stock market's trajectory and non-bank positions serve as indicators for gauging the pressure on bond market adjustments. Should the stock market cease its unilateral upward momentum or if fund positions diminish to low levels, this could signal the dissipation of bearish forces, heralding an opportune moment to increase allocations.