The address delivered by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium was widely perceived by the market as a signal indicative of a 'dovish' stance towards monetary easing policies. However, a research report from CICC cautions that Powell did not explicitly affirm the durability or scope of potential interest rate reductions. Instead, he elaborated on the Fed's 'reaction function,' which dictates a bias towards rate cuts when employment risks outweigh those of inflation. Presently, the confluence of escalating tariffs and restrictive immigration policies has created a scenario where both employment and inflation risks coexist. Should inflation risks surpass those related to employment, Powell might employ the same 'reaction function' to halt further interest rate cuts. Consequently, the market should refrain from viewing Powell's remarks as the inception of easing policies and instead recognize the complexities faced by monetary policy when employment and inflation objectives are in conflict.
