China Galaxy Securities: Monetary Easing in H2 May Surpass Expectations
2025-08-15 / Read about 0 minute
Author:小编   

China Galaxy Securities anticipates that the core objectives of monetary policy in the second half of the year will continue to revolve around economic growth and full employment, with the degree of monetary easing potentially exceeding current projections. From an external perspective, the Federal Reserve could implement another interest rate cut in September, paving the way for a conducive climate for monetary easing measures. Internally, two key factors come into play: Firstly, the imposition of additional tariffs by the United States on China may adversely affect China's exports, temporarily decelerating economic growth and exacerbating employment pressures. Secondly, the prevailing low inflation environment is anticipated to extend into the second half of the year, accompanied by elevated real interest rates, necessitating further downward adjustments. Consequently, it is envisioned that policy interest rates will be trimmed by an additional 10-20 basis points in the third quarter, prompting a decline in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and further reductions in both lending and deposit interest rates.