Morgan Stanley has highlighted that in November, the metric gauging Oracle's debt risk soared to its peak in three years. Should Oracle not address investors' worries over its extensive artificial intelligence investment plans, the company's debt risk scenario could worsen significantly by 2026. Credit analysts identify the primary risks confronting Oracle as a widening funding shortfall and an increasingly bloated balance sheet. Predictions suggest that within the next five years, the annual cost of insuring against Oracle's debt default will climb to 125 basis points, with the price of 5-year credit default swaps (CDS) potentially exceeding the peak levels witnessed since 2008. Analysts further noted that Oracle's CDS could soon surpass 150 basis points and might even reach close to 200 basis points if Oracle provides limited clarity on its financing approach in the upcoming year. In September of this year, Oracle floated $18 billion worth of bonds and, in early November, secured roughly $18 billion in project financing loans. Moreover, banks extended a loan package totaling $38 billion. The lending institutions participating in Oracle's project construction loans are likely the main drivers behind the recent spike in CDS trading activity, a trend that is anticipated to persist.
