CITIC Securities has released its 2027 technology stock investment strategy. Although factors such as controversy over AI investment returns, elevated interest rates and the financing environment, and trading crowding continue to weigh on technology stock valuations, ChiNext valuations have now fallen back to the low levels seen during the Federal Reserve rate hike cycles of 2017–2018 and 2023–2024. Considering strong fundamental factors such as tight supply and demand for computing power and high EPS growth for technology stocks, the A-share technology sector could have considerable recovery elasticity if 2027 rate hike expectations reverse, financing costs decline, model capabilities break through, and new applications drive the next round of ARR growth. In terms of timing, Q1 2027 is an important observation window: the next-generation model trained on Rubin is expected to launch and demonstrate capability improvements, domestic large models will enter a major version iteration period around the Spring Festival, and domestic HBM is expected to begin mass production and ramp up. At the same time, the outlook for computing power demand in 2028 will become clearer, and A-share technology as a whole may show a low-then-high trend. In terms of structure, the certainty of AI applications is increasing, with directions such as AI film and television, AI4S, and enterprise AI taking shape, and physical AI entering its first year of implementation. Domestic computing power is entering a period of volume expansion and harvest, and domestic storage capacity expansion is driving high prosperity in equipment. We recommend focusing on alpha opportunities such as technological upgrades and high earnings certainty.
