November 4 news: Preliminary results from the U.S. midterm elections indicate that Democrats are poised to win both chambers of Congress simultaneously, prompting the dollar to post its largest decline in a month, with the Swiss franc and yen emerging as the biggest winners in the foreign exchange market. During Asian trading hours, the Swiss franc rose nearly 1% and the yen gained 0.7%; the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell as much as 0.4%, marking its largest drop since October 2, while the Australian dollar lagged behind. Markets are concerned that a Democratic victory could push the technology and artificial intelligence sectors toward stricter regulation, putting pressure on U.S. equities and the dollar; if political gridlock limits further tax cuts and government spending, U.S. Treasuries could benefit. David Forrester, a strategist at Credit Agricole, said the dollar's reliance on the AI boom is exposing its vulnerability, and if a Democratic victory hinders data center construction, the dollar will face pressure. However, the dollar's decline may not last: if U.S.-Iran negotiations break down and oil prices rebound, inflation expectations and bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes may heat up, thereby supporting the dollar; moreover, Trump can still veto congressional moves to tighten AI regulation. Rin Maruyama, a strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities, believes the dollar may eventually reverse its decline.
