On October 30, Deutsche Bank noted that an AI-driven market correction could upend the traditional relationship between the dollar and U.S. equities, and that the dollar may no longer serve as a reliable safe-haven asset. The recent simultaneous slide in tech stocks and the dollar suggests that the risks facing the greenback are more two-sided than the market had previously priced in. One reason is the unprecedented scale of overseas investment in U.S. equities, with foreign holdings now exceeding $20 trillion—of which roughly 90% of asset growth has come from stock price appreciation rather than new purchases. Another key factor is the shift in equity hedging mechanisms. Over the past decade, U.S. stocks and the dollar have been negatively correlated, giving investors a powerful incentive to leave currency risk unhedged. Once U.S. stocks are hit by domestic factors, the dollar could fall in tandem with equities, amplifying losses for overseas investors. If U.S. real yields and the stock market decline simultaneously, it would signal that the market is scaling back expectations for AI capital expenditure growth—and further confirm the dollar's diminishing safe-haven appeal. Deutsche Bank summed up the trend thus: "The age of the AI dollar has arrived."
