IMF Predicts Economic Growth Rebound Next Year, Yet Paints a 'Lackluster' Medium-Term Picture
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Author:小编   

On October 13, the IMF forecasted that while the global economy is poised for a rebound next year, its growth rate will remain below the 3.5% average observed over the past two years, describing the medium-term outlook as "lackluster". A key factor contributing to this is the uneven impact of AI advancements, as technological progress is widening economic disparities. IMF data reveals that nearly two-thirds of the additional trade in computing hardware is concentrated in just two economies—Taiwan (China), and South Korea. Meanwhile, the U.S. and China accounted for over 75% of net AI-related imports last year, which is narrowing the foundation for global economic growth. The IMF highlighted that currently, only 32 economies are responsible for 95% of the overall economic expansion, a significant drop from 54 economies just half a year ago. The IMF noted that it remains uncertain whether the surge in AI-related demand will, in the long run, result in a positive supply shock and spur faster productivity growth. In the meantime, it is intensifying inflationary pressures and financial vulnerabilities. Nevertheless, the IMF still anticipates a deceleration in inflation next year, with the global inflation rate projected to fall to 4.1% after peaking at 4.7%. In light of the budget challenges underscored by the bond market sell-off, the IMF has urged the implementation of "credible adjustment plans" to restore fiscal resilience.