On October 11, a research report by CITIC Securities highlighted that, despite stabilization in oil prices, weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll figures, and a downward adjustment in Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations, global long-term bond yields continue to climb. This trend primarily stems from sustained robust private sector investment and financing demand, fueled by trillion-dollar investments. North America, in particular, has led the charge in breaking free from the post-financial-crisis era of sluggish growth and ultra-low interest rates. Currently, the world finds itself entrenched in a high-interest-rate environment—a scenario likely to persist until the AI investment cycle reaches a turning point.
At present, only North America's AI sector and industries tied to China's central fiscal expansion exhibit resilience to elevated overseas interest rates. In contrast, overseas expansion initiatives and resource-related sectors are grappling with mounting pressures. Amid sluggish demand, the scarcity of supply-side liquidated assets becomes increasingly pronounced, making the process of curbing excessive competition a focal point for the coming year.
From an asset allocation perspective, the report recommends leveraging booming sectors and supply-side liquidated assets as short-term strategies to navigate the high-interest-rate landscape. Simultaneously, it underscores the importance of vigilantly tracking the AI investment cycle's inflection point, which could signal a broader shift in market dynamics.
Cultural and Structural Enhancements:
