Morgan Stanley states that advancements in artificial intelligence technology are disrupting the software industry, projecting that the default rate on direct loans will rise to 8%. Although the fundamentals of private credit have not been 'materially' impacted by the disruptive effects of AI, the software industry's high leverage and debt maturity pressures could push default rates to levels close to their highest since the pandemic. The software industry represents the largest sector in business development companies' portfolios, accounting for approximately 26%, with private credit collateralized loan obligations having a 19% exposure to software and multiple loans nearing maturity.
