Galaxy Securities: AI Industry Steps into a Phase of Rational Scrutiny
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Author:小编   

On September 23, Galaxy Securities issued a research report noting that on September 16, the Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them to the range of 3.75%-4.00%. This marked the first rate hike since July 2023. The interest rate increase has triggered a systematic upward adjustment in the core of the risk-free interest rate (central tendency). This shift primarily influences equity assets by elevating discount rates, which in turn first impacts price-to-earnings ratios, especially for high-valuation growth stocks that heavily rely on long-term cash flows.

Despite this, the AI industry continues to thrive, with the market's pricing rationale evolving from a focus on 'long-term vision' to 'immediate realization.' On the inaugural trading day following the rate hike, segments of the computing power supply chain, including memory, CPUs, foundry services, and optical interconnects, exhibited robust performance. This was attributed to their robust current profitability, brief investment return cycles, and resilience to rising interest rates.

The market continues to exhibit differentiation, with pricing frameworks undergoing significant changes. Computing power hardware that is currently generating cash flows and demonstrating performance (such as advanced manufacturing processes, memory, optical interconnects, and equipment materials) stands to gain as negative factors are factored into their pricing. Conversely, assets that are heavily reliant on long-term narratives and lack profit support are gradually being phased out by the market. The AI industry is now transitioning into a phase of rational verification and scrutiny.