At the China EV 100 Forum 2025 on March 30th, Wang Qing, deputy director of the Institute of Market Economics at the Development Research Center of the State Council, shared insights on the growing influence of new energy vehicles (NEVs). He highlighted the significant substitution effect of NEVs for fuel vehicles, with a domestic substitution rate of approximately 98% in 2021. Wang Qing predicted that NEV sales will surge to 17 million units this year, pushing the market share of domestic NEV passenger vehicles to nearly 58%. Assuming no new disruptions, he estimates a 3%-4% increase in overall automobile sales in China by 2025.

Wang Qing further emphasized the impactful policy effect of the trade-in incentive, which encompasses roughly 25 million passenger vehicles. This initiative is anticipated to stimulate market potential in underserved markets and the central and western regions, potentially driving the scrapping and replacement of over 2 million vehicles. Regarding consumption trends for the current year, he noted that advanced consumption has yet to significantly influence the market. Since 2020, pent-up demand in the market has amounted to approximately 2.7 million vehicles, with an additional 500,000 to 1 million units expected to be released this year. However, the outlook for next year requires further monitoring.