In a recent article, Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), noted that the domestic auto market in 2026 will face a confluence of short-term challenges, leading to a notably sluggish performance. He estimated that vehicle sales for the entire year would reach only 18.5 million units, falling short of both the record high set in 2025 and the low point experienced in 2020.
However, looking ahead to 2027, the CPCA's forecasting team remains optimistic. They anticipate that as short-term disruptive factors subside, cost pressures ease, and product competitiveness on the supply side improves, the domestic auto market will bottom out and embark on a recovery path. This projection assumes no major unexpected shifts in policies or the overall business environment. Retail growth for the year is expected to range between 0% and 5%, averaging around 2%, accompanied by a more pronounced market differentiation.