Huatai Securities underscores that, irrespective of the current supply disruptions stemming from 'overproduction crackdowns', the supply-demand surplus is projected to decrease by 110 million tonnes in the third quarter of 2025 (Q3'25) compared to the second quarter (Q2'25), owing to heightened coal consumption. Mirroring the trend observed from the fourth quarter of 2023 (Q4'23) to the first quarter of 2024 (Q1'24), the marginal tightening in Q3'25 vis-à-vis Q2'25 is anticipated to fall within the range of 120 to 160 million tonnes, providing a foundation for a sustained resurgence in coal prices. From the lens of profitability sensitivity analysis of industry leaders, Q2'25 could mark the trough in performance for leading coal enterprises. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cuts in the second half of the year are poised to further amplify the allocation appeal of dividend sectors. Concurrently, the recovery of coal prices above port long-term contract prices will bolster the fulfillment rate of long-term contracts and stabilize the cash flows of leading enterprises, thereby reinforcing their dividend rationale.